Ideal Taxes Association

Raymond Richman       -       Jesse Richman       -       Howard Richman

 Richmans' Trade and Taxes Blog



Morici predicts manufacturing and house price slumps
Howard Richman, 4/25/2013

University of Maryland economist Peter Morici predicts a deceptively strong GDP report for the first quarter (Deceptively strong US GDP report expected). On the near horizon he sees slowdowns coming in U.S. manufacturing and house prices.

As far as U.S. manufacturing is concerned, he sees layoffs on the horizon due to President Obama's decisions to tolerate Asian mercantilism:

The continuing surge of Chinese exports onto American store shelves, and weakening demand for U.S. products in recession torn Europe are dampening demand for U.S. manufactures. Japan's weak yen policy is imposing tougher competition on U.S. automakers and other manufacturers of technology-intensive products. Already, the Commerce department reported durable goods orders fell 5.7% in March, indicating much slower sales going forward.

He argues that rising house and agricultural land prices are due to a speculative boom, that will eventually bust. Morici writes:...

Read more...

Comments: 0


Variable Single-Country Tariffs Are the Key to U.S. and Eurozone Recovery
Raymond Richman, 4/23/2013

As John Maynard Keynes urged at conferences to create a brave,new world during WWII, balanced trade is the KEY to world economic stability. Balanced trade is the key to U.S., European, and world economic recovery. The massive unemployment in the U.S. and Southern Europe , Brazil, and others cannot be corrected by austerity alone. A world gold standard without the right of each country to employ flexible tariffs will not produce economic recovery nor will any other currency standard.

Austerity in Greece, Italy, Spain,, Portugal, France, and the U.S. will not produce economic recovery nor will vast government expenditures do it, nor will monetary policy. The Keynesian multiplier is a fiction. Government spending creates the illusion of recovery and not real recovery. Austerity in Southern Europe kid not work. Huge budget deficits and quantitative easing in the U.S. produced no genuine recovery. Nothing will work except relatively balanced trade and relatively balanced budgets and monetary discipline, i.e. creation of sufficient money to accommodate stable growth. The economic history of the past decade in the U.S. and the Eurozone have proven that.

The failure of the “new deal” in the 1930s and the budget deficit and the policies of the past decade under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have proven the non-existence of a Keynesian multiplier. Nearly all the increase in GDP was the net increase in government spending. Prof. Valerie Ramey of the University of San Diego has shown that increased spending by government is accompanied by diminished spending in the private sector. The failure of Pres. Obama’s economic stimulus plan of 2009 and the subsequent U.S. budget deficits are evidence of the non-existence of a multiplier. ...

Read more...

Comments: 0


Variable Single-Country Tariffs Are the Key to U.S. and Eurozone Recovery
Raymond Richman, 4/23/2013

As John Maynard Keynes urged at conferences to create a brave,new world during WWII, balanced trade is the KEY to world economic stability. Balanced trade is the key to U.S., European, and world economic recovery. The massive unemployment in the U.S. and Southern Europe , Brazil, and others cannot be corrected by austerity alone. A world gold standard without the right of each country to employ flexible tariffs will not produce economic recovery nor will any other currency standard.

Austerity in Greece, Italy, Spain,, Portugal, France, and the U.S. will not produce economic recovery nor will vast government expenditures do it, nor will monetary policy. The Keynesian multiplier is a fiction. Government spending creates the illusion of recovery and not real recovery. Austerity in Southern Europe kid not work. Huge budget deficits and quantitative easing in the U.S. produced no genuine recovery. Nothing will work except relatively balanced trade and relatively balanced budgets and monetary discipline, i.e. creation of sufficient money to accommodate stable growth. The economic history of the past decade in the U.S. and the Eurozone have proven that.

The failure of the “new deal” in the 1930s and the budget deficit and the policies of the past decade under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have proven the non-existence of a Keynesian multiplier. Nearly all the increase in GDP was the net increase in government spending. Prof. Valerie Ramey of the University of San Diego has shown that increased spending by government is accompanied by diminished spending in the private sector. The failure of Pres. Obama’s economic stimulus plan of 2009 and the subsequent U.S. budget deficits are evidence of the non-existence of a multiplier. ...

Read more...

Comments: 0


Washington Post Condemns European Climate Policies
Jesse Richman, 4/22/2013

The Washington Post editorial board condemns Europe's mis-managed greenhouse gas emissions policies in an editorial today.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/europe-is-becoming-a-green-energy-basket-case/2013/04/21/4b1b81d0-a87e-11e2-b029-8fb7e977ef71_story.html

Europe's failed effort to implement a continent-wide cap on greenhouse gas emissions managed through a market for carbon permits is the central focus of the editorial...

Read more...

Comments: 0


Korea-US Trade agreement has cost about 50,000 jobs so far
Howard Richman, 4/16/2013

In 2012, despite the fact that South Korea is a currency manipulating country (see Bernanke's Figure 8), Congress passed and President Obama signed KORUS, a so-called "free trade agreement" with South Korea. Ever since it went into effect in March 2012, U.S. net exports (exports minus imports) of goods to South Korea have fallen as shown by the following graph:

From the year ending February 2012 to the year ending February 2013, US net exports of goods to South Korea fell from a negative $13.2 billion to a negative $18.1 billion. Assuming that each American manufacturing worker produces about $100,000 of product, American manufacturing workers have lost about 50,000 jobs, so far, as a result of KORUS.

The loss of manufacturing jobs could, conceivably, be overcome by gains in jobs in the service sector. However, net American service exports to South Korea have been relatively stagnant. There was only a $0.5 billion increase in U.S. net exports of services to South Korea from 2011 to 2012.

The United States is on track toward achieving the loss of 159,000 jobs to KORUS that was predicted by the Economic Policy Institute. Sam Williford wrote on March 21, 2011 (NAFTA Is Proof that KORUS Will Be Disastrous):...

Read more...

Comments: 1


ALERT: Good or Bad Economic News, Report of Initial Unemployment Claims
Raymond Richman, 4/11/2013

Once again, there is an unexplained divergence between CNBC reports of a decrease in initial weekly unemployment claims when, in fact, there was a substantial increase in the number. The media always report the “seasonally adjusted” number. For the week ending April 6, CNBC reported that number of initial unemployment claims filed declined 42,000. The actual, the not seasonally adjusted number, the unadjusted number,  was an increase of 37,025 in the number of unemployment claims to 353,933. As I reported previously, we had a report that during one week in March, the actual number of claims had fallen below 300,000, a very good number. It turned out as I reported the following week that it was not repeated and therefore was not a good indication that our economy was beginning to recover....

Read more...

Comments: 1


Why is the media hiding the worsening US-China trade deficit?
Howard Richman, 4/9/2013

Why is the American media misinforming the American people about the worsening US-China trade deficit? The graph below shows the actual trade deficit, with a 12 month moving average:

ChinaTradeThru0213.gif

In February, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China hit another 12 month record, falling to $321 billion over the last 12 months. In 2012, the U.S. had a service trade surplus with China of $17 billion, so the U.S. trade deficit with China in goods and services is now about $304 billion as compared to $298 billion at the end of 2012 and $280 billion at the end of 2011.

Yet the mainstream media all reported that the U.S. trade deficit with China improved in February, ignoring the fact that it is always lowest at this time of year. Here's a sample:...

Read more...

Comments: 0


The Gods of the Copybook Headings are in Cyprus - We're published in today's American Thinker
Howard Richman, 4/5/2013

Here's is a selection:

[T]he "terrible swift sword" of the Gods of the Copybook Headings is a two-edged sword. It is not only slashing the savings of investors, it is also slashing away at Cypriot employment:

  • Cyprus used to be an international center for banking. The jobs serving foreign depositors died when Cyprus confiscated 37.5% of deposits exceeding 100,000 euros by converting them into nearly worthless bank equity.
  • Many of Cyprus' businesses are now going bankrupt due to a cash crunch. Not only did they lose 37.5% of their bank deposits of over 100,000 euros, but now they only have limited access to their remaining funds.
  • Cyprus's biggest employer, the government, has kept its wages and employment high. But in return for the low interest 10 billion euro loan that will keep it solvent, the Cypriot government will have to move its budget toward balance.

Meanwhile, Cyprus' underlying problem, its huge trade deficit, is not being addressed. From 1995 through 2012 Cyprus averaged a current account deficit (trade deficit) of nearly six percent of GDP. Borrowing that much money from abroad to buy imports makes for huge international vulnerabilities. If the problem goes on too long, the choices become stark. Either the lenders do not get repaid, or someone steps in to pay them. In Cyprus, the lenders did not get repaid.

Countries that run trade deficits do not save; they live on borrowing from abroad. The going is good while the foreign loans are flowing in, partly due to real estate bubbles and stock market bubbles. But eventually, they lose credit. Cyprus has now lost credit.

To read the rest, follow this link:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/04/the_gods_of_the_copybook_headings_are_in_cyprus.html

Read more...

Comments: 0


The Gods of the Copybook Headings are in Cyprus Now, and Coming Here Soon
Howard Richman, 4/2/2013

The above you-tube video shows Glenn Beck reading Rudyard Kipling's 1919 poem, The Gods of the Copybook Headings. In that poem, Kipling compares the truths of the real world ("the Gods of the Copybook Headings") with the promises of social progressives ("the Gods of the Market Place"), and he concludes that nations which follow the false promises of the social progressives eventually rediscover reality, often when it is too late.

In his April 2 column (Today, Cyprus, Tomorrow…) Pat Buchanan sees the Gods of the Copybook Headings at work in Cyprus today. He argues that those investors who loaned their money to Cypriot banks were ignoring reality, writing:

From Asia to Europe, people concerned about the safety of their money are looking at Cyprus, with many surely saying, “There, but for the grace of God, go I!” And they likely hear in the anguished cries of Russian, British and Cypriot depositors, who got no warning and failed to get out in time, a fire bell in the night for themselves.

If this persuades depositors to seek security first for their income, pensions and savings, and to transfer funds out of risky banks into more solid institutions, is that such a bad thing?

If Kipling’s Gods of the Copybook Headings, who arrived on Cyprus in March with their terrible swift sword, are back in charge, is this not better than having Western taxpayers forever securing the deposits and investments of the rich and feckless?...

Read more...

Comments: 0


Estimating Climate Sensitivity
Jesse Richman, 4/1/2013

A recent article in the Economist reviews recent research suggesting that the sensitivity of the climate to changes in carbon dioxide levels.  Various estimates suggest that the sensitivity is lower than the IPCC previously estimated, while the role of natural variability in climate may be larger than had previously been estimated...

Read more...

Comments: 0





  • Richmans' Blog    RSS
  • Our New Book - Balanced Trade
  • Buy Trading Away Our Future
  • Read Trading Away Our Future
  • Richmans' Commentaries
  • ITA Working Papers
  • ITA on Facebook
  • Contact Us

    Archive
    Sep 2017
    Aug 2017
    Jul 2017
    Jun 2017
    May 2017
    Apr 2017
    Mar 2017
    Feb 2017
    Jan 2017
    Dec 2016
    Nov 2016
    Oct 2016
    Sep 2016
    Aug 2016
    Jul 2016
    Jun 2016
    May 2016
    Apr 2016
    Mar 2016
    Feb 2016
    Jan 2016
    Dec 2015
    Nov 2015
    Oct 2015
    Sep 2015
    Aug 2015
    Jul 2015
    Jun 2015
    May 2015
    Apr 2015
    Mar 2015
    Feb 2015
    Jan 2015
    Dec 2014
    Nov 2014
    Oct 2014
    Sep 2014
    Aug 2014
    Jul 2014
    Jun 2014
    May 2014
    Apr 2014
    Mar 2014
    Feb 2014
    Jan 2014
    Dec 2013
    Nov 2013
    Oct 2013
    Sep 2013
    Aug 2013
    Jul 2013
    Jun 2013
    May 2013
    Apr 2013

    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    July 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010

    Categories:
    Book Reviews
    Capital Gains Taxation
    Corporate Income Tax
    Consumption Taxes
    Economy - Long Term
    Economy - Short Term
    Environmental Regulation
    Politics
    Real Estate Taxation
    Trade
    Miscellaneous

    Outside Links:

  • American Economic Alert
  • American Jobs Alliance
  • Angry Bear Blog
  • Economy in Crisis
  • Econbrowser
  • Emmanuel Goldstein's Blog
  • Levy Economics Institute
  • McKeever Institute
  • Michael Pettis Blog
  • Naked Capitalism
  • Natural Born Conservative
  • Science & Public Policy Inst.
  • TradeReform.org
  • Votersway Blog
  • Watt's Up With That


    Wikipedia:

  • [An] extensive argument for balanced trade, and a program to achieve balanced trade is presented in Trading Away Our Future, by Raymond Richman, Howard Richman and Jesse Richman. “A minimum standard for ensuring that trade does benefit all is that trade should be relatively in balance.” [Balanced Trade entry]

    Journal of Economic Literature:

  • [Trading Away Our Future] Examines the costs and benefits of U.S. trade and tax policies. Discusses why trade deficits matter; root of the trade deficit; the “ostrich” and “eagles” attitudes; how to balance trade; taxation of capital gains; the real estate tax; the corporate income tax; solving the low savings problem; how to protect one’s assets; and a program for a strong America....

    Atlantic Economic Journal:

  • In Trading Away Our Future   Richman ... advocates the immediate adoption of a set of public policy proposal designed to reduce the trade deficit and increase domestic savings.... the set of public policy proposals is a wake-up call... [February 17, 2009 review by T.H. Cate]