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Winner of this year's 'Best Climate Predictor' Award
Howard Richman, 12/22/2010

It's time to choose the winner of this year's "Best Climate Predictor" award. There are five nominees: (1) Al Gore, (2) Arnold Schwarzenegger, (3) the IPCC of the United Nations, (4) Piers Corbyn and (5) President Hu.

Gore, Schwarzenegger and the IPCC made their mark through their dramatic predictions of catastrophic sea level rise due to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Al Gore once predicted that sea level would rise by 20 feet over the century. Last year, Governor Schwarzenegger unveiled a map showing world sea level rising by 1.5 meters over the next century. In 2001 the IPCC predicted that sea level would rise by 3 feet over the next century. The actual rise over the last 18 years is 1.85 inches, which works out to 10.4 inches per century. This is similar to the 20th century's rise of 8 inches, but much less than the average rise of 4 foot per century for the last 10,000 years as the glaciers left by the last ice age continue to melt.

The chart below shows how these predictions stack up against 18 years of accurate satellite measurements:

SeaLevelGSI.jpg

Al Gore's prediction is clearly the best of these three. He was awarded a million dollar Nobel Peace Prize for bringing this issue to the attention of the world. The IPCC's prediction is second. At the Cancun Conference this month they won a huge expansion of the UN bureaucracy. Schwarzenegger's prediction comes in third since it is not yet clear whether he will get the global warming spokesman job in the Obama administration that he is angling for.

British astrophysicist Piers Corbyn is the clear loser. He still works out of a drab office that the Sydney Morning Herald calls "undistinguished":

(T)his is the third tough winter in a row. Is it really true that no one saw this coming?

Actually, they did. Allow me to introduce readers to Piers Corbyn, meteorologist and brother of my old chum, bearded leftie MP Jeremy. Piers Corbyn works in an undistinguished office in Borough High Street. He has no telescope or supercomputer. Armed only with a laptop, huge quantities of publicly available data and a first-class degree in astrophysics, he gets it right again and again.

Back in November, when the Met Office was still doing its "mild winter" schtick, Corbyn said it would be the coldest for 100 years. Indeed, it was back in May that he first predicted a snowy December, and he put his own money on a white Christmas about a month before the Met Office made any such forecast. He said that the Met Office would be wrong about last year's mythical "barbecue summer", and he was vindicated. He was closer to the truth about last winter, too.

He seems to get it right about 85 per cent of the time and serious business people - notably in farming - are starting to invest in his forecasts. In the eyes of many punters, he puts the taxpayer-funded Met Office to shame. How on earth does he do it? He studies the Sun.

Corbyn, like many other physicists, has figured out that climate change is mainly due to extra-terrestrial forces, including solar activity and cosmic rays, not carbon dioxide. He makes predictions based upon patterns of solar activity, and they usually turn out to be correct.

Who says that climate change will not be catastrophic? Starting January 2, President Obama's EPA will start enforcing its new regulation that American industries use the "best available control technologies" to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This could increase American energy costs sufficiently to choke off our economic recovery.

And don't forget that at the conclusion of last year's climate conference in Copenhagen. President Obama negotiated the Copenhagen Accord with China, Brazil, South Africa and India as a framework for future negotiations. That accord lets China opt out from any verifiable requirements, but commits the developed nations to paying out $100 billion per year to the UN and to the participating developing countries. That accord stated:

In the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation, developed countries commit to a goal of mobilizing jointly USD 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. This funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance. New multilateral funding for adaptation will be delivered through effective and efficient fund arrangements, with a governance structure providing for equal representation of developed and developing countries. A significant portion of such funding should flow through the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund.

So who is the best climate predictor of the year? That honor goes to President Hu of China. Due to his clear-eyed understanding, his country will get the industries that are sent to China by President Obama and the UN.

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Comment by Luke, 12/23/2010:

You are an idiot and obvioulsy know nothing about the science. Do some research into positive feedbacks. Its not as simple as just "oh the last 18 years has been this much so lets times that by 5.5 to give us about a century's worth".. Leave the science to the scientists you fools

Response to this comment by Howard Richman, 12/23/2010:
Luke, be sure to follow the link that you'll find in the article if you click on the word "physicists." You will learn what these physicists have already discovered.
Response to this comment by Luke, 12/23/2010:
haha yeah right "Corbyn, like many other physicists, has figured out that climate change is mainly due to extra-terrestrial forces, including solar activity and cosmic rays, not carbon dioxide. He makes predictions based upon patterns of solar activity, and they usually turn out to be correct." this stuff was debunked a long time ago.
Response to this comment by Luke, 12/23/2010:
oh by the way, your link says nothing we dont already know. Let me quote the first line "The current understanding of climate change in the industrial age is that it is predominantly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, with relatively small natural contributions due to solar irradiance and volcanoes"... BINGO! Stop miss representing the work. Maybe even try speaking to CLIMATE SCIENTISTS who actually know what they are talking about.... or you can just stick to sitting at your desk punching out numbers and whinging about policy
Response to this comment by Luke, 12/24/2010:
Oh and also wise guy, sea level rise occurs as a result of a warmer climate and ocean. It is not a way of predicting climate nor is it the climate so the heading to this story makes no sense... you really do need to spend more time learning about this stuff and less time trying to get the perfect 'part' in your hair folks
Response to this comment by JackPoynter, 12/24/2010:
You are correct that sea Level rise is not a predictor of climate, but it can be seen as a cumulative measure of the rate of climate warming, which is all the article claims by that point. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!


Comment by JackPoynter, 12/24/2010:

I bask in the glow of this article, sweet reason dispelling shades of obfuscation.  Dr. Corbyn should get together with Dr. Spencer at the University of Alabama, who rises above the clouds to measure global temps unshaded.  I wonder if Dr. Corbyn uses Dr. Spencer's measurements?


Comment by Steve, 12/29/2010:

Luke....don't be fooled by foolish science that is based on political and monitary gain. Junk science is a lousy foundation for your arguement.

Regardless of which year ( 1934, 1998, or 2010) turns out to be the warmest of the past century, that year will rank number 9,099 in the long-term list.

The climate has been warming slowly since the Little Ice Age, but it has quite a ways to go yet before reaching the temperature levels that persisted for nearly all of the past 10,500 years.

Come away from the Darkside Luke!




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