Raymond Richman - Jesse Richman - Howard Richman
Richmans' Trade and Taxes Blog
Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Week Ending October 26
The weekly unemployment insurance weekly claims report is in our opinion the most timely indication of changes in the state of the economy. We consider a reduction in the claims filed below 300,000 to be positive for the economic future. We called your attention to that fact when that occurred a few months ago. It has since returned to levels in the mid-300s, which we view as economic stagnation. Unemployment, including those who left the labor force and those working part-time is as great as it has been since 2009. We favor giving greater weight to the unadjusted data since we know no reason for seasonally adjusting weekly data. The first few paragraphs of today’s report reads as follows:
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent for the week ending October 19, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 19 was 2,881,000, an increase of 31,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,850,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,878,750, a decrease of 10,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,888,750.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 317,580 in the week ending October 26, an increase of 6,064 from the previous week. There were 339,917 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.9 percent during the week ending October 19, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,523,509, an increase of 72,113 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.2 percent and the volume was 2,837,543.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 12 was 3,896,214, an increase of 39,532 from the previous week. There were 5,035,367 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2012.
We take the data, together with other economic indicators monthly and quarterly, as indicating continued stagnation.The stock market reached new highs reflecting in our opinion the positive effect on earnings of rising prices domestically and continued purchase of assets by the Federal Reserve System. The principle beneficiaries of the Fed’s quantitative easing were the owners of stocks and other assets such as housing as the result of low interest rates. Watch out when the Fed stops easing.
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