Raymond Richman - Jesse Richman - Howard Richman
Richmans' Trade and Taxes Blog
The Unemployment Claims Filed Last Week Were Even Worse than the Week Before Reported Below
We have another instance this week of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report of the U.S. Department of Labor reporting incredible numbers.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 369,591 in the week ending July 12, an increase of 47,079 (or 14.6 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 49,945 (or 15.5 percent) from the previous week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,557,108, an increase of 162,125 (or 6.8 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 243,119 (or 10.2 percent) from the previous week.
As a result of its seasonal adjustments, the U.S.D of L reported and the media obediently reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 302,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. (The previous week's advanced level was revised up by 1,000 from 304,000 to 305,000.) The report states that “There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.” Reporting a decrease of 3,000 when the actual number of claims filed increased 47,079 requires a statement of what the seasonal factors might have been.
While we need to wait another week or two before we can say that this means another recession is likely or even possible, it certainly calls for watching further economic developments carefully to see whether its negative implications are corroborated.
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